Harga emas jatuh mendadak

Kejatuhan harga emas memberi peluang untuk kita untuk menambah stok emas dengan membeli emas fizikal atau pun saham-saham emas pada harga yang rendah. Jangan cepat penik kerana kejatuhan harga emas ini adalah dalam jangka pendek sahaja tetapi bagi jangka panjang harga emas tetap naik dan naik.... Punca kejatuhan harga emas ini adalah disebabkan Pengukuhan nilai dolar AS.

ALIRAN kenaikan jangka panjang emas terhenti selepas mencapai kemuncaknya tiga minggu lalu dengan kejatuhan hampir 20 peratus daripada paras tertinggi yang dicatat pada 6 September lalu.

Kontrak semasa emas semalam terus mengalami penyusutan dengan kejatuhan 5.8 peratus kepada AS$1,561.69 seauns kejatuhan harian terbesar sejak Oktober 2008.

Penganalisis berkata, kejatuhan mendadak harga logam berharga itu sejak kebelakangan ini adalah berikutan pengukuhan dolar Amerika Syarikat (AS), penjualan oleh dana lindung nilai untuk mendapat tunai bagi menampung kerugian di pasaran lain serta ketidaktentuan terhadap daya tarikan emas sebagai instrumen pelaburan selamat.

Bagi kontrak semasa perak, yang mana harganya lebih berkait rapat dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi susulan kegunaan dalam industri, mencapai paras terendah sejak Januari dan susut 45 peratus daripada paras tertinggi yang dicatat pada April.

Ahli Ekonomi Kanan Penyelidikan UOB, Alvin Liew, berkata sebelum ini tunai digunakan untuk melabur dalam komoditi khususnya emas dan perak.

Bagaimanapun, katanya emas kini bukan lagi instrumen menarik untuk melindungi pelaburan daripada inflasi susulan masalah hutang Eropah dan jangkaan inflasi Amerika Syarikat (AS).

Kedua-dua masalah itu menyaksikan dana mengalir kembali ke AS, yang mana menyaksikan peningkatan semula nilai dolar.
Namun begitu, dalam jangka panjang, emas masih memiliki nilainya yang tersendiri dan harganya akan meningkat dalam tempoh akan datang, jelasnya.

Bagi Ketua Penyelidikan Komoditi, Pengurusan Kekayaan UBS, Dominic Schnider, berkata dari sudut teknikal, emas masih belum memasuki jajaran terlebih jualan dan secara keseluruhannya aliran kenaikan kini semakin pudar.

Harga komoditi itu dijangka meningkat semula kerana sebelum ini, kami sudah menyaksikan peningkatan permintaan fizikal yang kukuh terhadap komoditi itu khususnya dari Asia dan secara bermusim, ia akan memasuki tempoh permintaan tinggi, katanya.

Pakar Ekonomi Serantau Penyelidik CIMB, Song Seng Wun, berkata ramai yang memperkatakan mengenai risiko emas akan memasuki jajaran terlebih belian, namun ia meningkat naik sejak empat tahun lalu.

Dengan tekanan kemelesetan meningkat, berlaku peralihan pelaburan kepada instrumen yang benar-benar selamat iaitu dolar AS dan Perbendaharaan AS, katanya.

Sementara itu, Penganalisis Phillip Futures, Ong Yi Ling, berkata kini harga emas sudah susut ke bawah paras purata 100 hari dan 150 hari dan ia memberi isyarat aliran penurunan akan berlaku dalam jangka pendek.

Untuk jangka panjang, selepas harganya kembali stabil dan keadaan kembali normal, instrumen pelaburan selamat itu akan kembali meningkat, katanya. Reuters

The Gold Tsunami Wave Cycle

The Gold (and Silver) bull continues to closely follow the giant wave formation of a tsunami. The recent more parabolic rise in Gold up to above $1,900 is analogous to the little ridge of water we first saw way out in the distance, and now, much like when the waters recede from the shore early in the tsunami wave formation, Gold is undergoing a correction. As the “Gold” waters receded, the diehard deflationists have run out onto the bare sea bed to whoop and holler that the sea of Dollar Inflation is ending. They currently hop about the nearby sea floor waving their arms in victory as they envision a catastrophic deflationary depression that will wreck the financial market back to the Stone Age, and the price of the Precious Metals along with it. Unfortunately, they fail to understand the wave cycle at work as the waters are sucked away from the shore only to strengthen the Gold tsunami wave that grows in the distance For the great Gold tsunami wave is being bolstered as the economy deteriorates, thereby necessitating a continued parabolic growth of printing of paper currencies worldwide. Where the first little parabolic rise in Gold merely caught the attention of the public, the growing strength of that wave as it reaches shore will leave everyone running for the hills of Gold and Silver. The Fed Shows Inflation When They Want To and Deflation When They Want To Last week, the Fed met for a special two-day meeting that ended with a dull thud as they announced “The Twist” that sounds a bit like a dance from the 60s. They also stated that the economy was weakening - economic weakness that has motivated them to aggressively inflate the US Dollar for 10 years, now. Yet, market expectations were for the Fed to announce another round of Dollar Inflation via QE3 at the special 2 day meeting so the markets sold off in response to the failure of the Fed’s announcement. What occurred in the Precious Metals markets seems a bit absurd as Gold and Silver were pounded aggressively lower in price though the Fed often leads rounds of Dollar Inflation with suggestive hints of deflationary pressures. To some extent it defines the need for their move, and it probably intends to show that they are in control of something that they cannot control. The massive deflationary backdrop of debt demands that they either “inflate or die.” Commentators noted that the exaggerated fall in Gold, Silver, and in the PM stocks resulted from margin calls “where investors sell what they have to sell.” Yet, the extent of the weekly fall in the DJIA was rather small compared to the 2 week fall back in early August - a time when Gold, Silver, and the PM Stocks moved higher. A more likely cause for the fall in the PM sector lies in the Fed’s failure to announce QE3 as it pointed to economic weakness, combined with this coming Tuesday’s Gold and Silver options expiration date - a monthly bashing that generally sees Gold and Silver whacked to lower levels. Further downside pressure on the PM sector probably stems from big trading firms reversing their “long Gold/ short PM stock ratio trade.” The large swings in the Gold price over the last 30 days provided the volume they needed to sell paper gold, and to cover and accumulate the Gold and Silver shares. Given the timing one has to wonder whether these large traders are the same firms who trade for the Market Stabilization Fund, and if they knew in advance that the Fed would tip its comments to deflation this week. The Gold Chart The following Gold Chart shows that the cyclical tendency since early 2009 has been for Gold to bottom at the green arrows with Gold correcting down to and through the dotted Bollinger Band (BB) mid-line to hit the 34 week exponential moving average while the RSI Indicator approaches the 50 line. Gold fell to the BB mid-line on Friday as the RSI approached the 50 line. Black rays off of the 2008 top show that Gold has been bottoming at each black line extended over the “last top.” Gold reached that juncture on Friday. We might see Gold weakness early next week, but we expect the basic relationship to hold. Near this point in the 70’s Gold Chart, an imminent bottom produced a sharp rise. REVIEW OF OUR EXPECTATIONS 1) A major bottom for the PM stock indices is now in place as we laid out for subscribers (see HERE for subscription details) early in the week of August 8th based on the fractal relationship to 1979. 2) Price and the technical Indicator readings for the PM Stock Indices continue to track the 1970’s with much higher prices expected in the intermediate-term. Per the 70’s PM Stock Model we expect this run to be the first, and smallest, of 3 momentum runs to come for the PM stock indices over the next few years. The mid-900s appear to be a realistic target for the HUI Index into year-end, or into early 2012. 3) We have reached the point in the cycle where leverage returns to the PM stocks with a vengeance per the late 1970s charts. 4) The fundamentals for Gold, Silver, and the PM Stocks could never be better. In fact, the Fed’s announcement this week was read as “deflationary”, where in reality it screamed, “We must launch an accelerated program of Dollar Inflation, and soon!” 5) Gold has now corrected in a very similar time sequence to the late 70’s, though the depth of the correction has been deeper over the last 2 days.Current Gold price relationships to the Bollinger Band mid-line and 34 EMA line suggest that an intermediate-term bottom is likely due this coming week. Such a bottom would fit the 70’s model nicely. 6) The US cannot pay its “regular bills” and interest on its debt, based on its current cash flow, much less cover other important needs that are growing astronomically. We now depend on the Fed printing an accelerating number of Dollars. This is what QE is - pure debt monetization that devalues the US Dollar aggressively. For the U.S. economy, it is either “print or die.” We expect that the Fed will print while acting like they have some choice in the matter other than a total Deflationary Depression. This fact has been true since early last decade. 7) The Fed generally appears to prefer to see the prices of Gold, Silver, and the Commodities correct to create overhead resistance on the charts before they announce Dollar Inflation moves. That is probably what was intended via the announcement at their special 2-day meeting creating the exaggerated fall in the PM sector this week - coupled with the usual sharp weakness going into Gold and Silver options expiration, next Tuesday. 8) With the big funds ending the long Gold/ short PM stock ratio trade, the PM stocks should be heavily supported after this bottom is complete. 9) The long-term PM Stock Model from the 70’s suggests that we will be entering the “sweet spot” of a 3rd Wave advance as soon as this correction is over. 10) Our upside targets for Silver for this run into late 2011/ early 2012 of $52 to $56 should be achievable for silver, with $58 to $62 as real possibilities. 11) We still expect all of our intermediate upside price objectives for Gold to be reached by late this year, or early next. We expect the next run in Gold to reach the $2250 level and $2500 level before a higher run takes us up to $3,000 Gold, or higher. 12) The recent exaggerated decline in the PM sector will likely act like pulling and letting go of a huge rubber band in terms of how the PM sector will advance after this correction ends. 13) An end of the aggressive and accelerating course of US Dollar Inflation at this time by the Fed would create a deflationary depression that would dwarf that of the 1929 era yet the Fed has gained the right from Congress to inflate to infinity if necessary. That right is the major difference between today and 2008 when nobody could foresee the Fed moving to aggressive Dollar Inflation via debt monetization after they blew out the banking multiplier loan system of Dollar Inflation. Debt monetization, QE, is a more permanent form of Dollar Inflation that cannot easily be reversed, thus the Dollar Devaluation via QE will be mostly permanent leaving a more permanent high price of Gold when it is all over. 14) We believe that we lie at a “load the boat moment” in this historic Gold and Silver bull for Gold, Silver, and the PM stocks. Summary 1. The mid-900s appear to be a realistic target for the HUI Index into year-end, or into early 2012. 2. $52 to $56 should be achievable for silver, with $58 to $62 as real possibilities, by late 2011/ early 2012      3. The next run upward in Gold to the $2250 level followed by $2500 with the           potential for $3,000, or a bit higher, is now on the radar screen for late this           year, or early next. Source: http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1317000203.php

UK Set for More Money-Printing: Goldman Sachs

By: Patrick Allen CNBC EMEA Head of News With the financial system facing renewed stress and global growth faltering economists at Goldman Sachs are predicting Britain will embark on a second round of quantitative easing in the coming months. “A serious concern for the [Bank of England’s] Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is that, having maintained policy rates at their floor for 2½ years and purchased 200 billion pounds [$322 billion] in assets already, lending supply remains highly constrained and effective lending rates remain high,” Kevin Daly, a European economist at Goldman Sachs [GS 104.56 -2.50 (-2.34%) ] wrote in a research note on Monday. With the Bank of England worried about the cost of banks' funding and its impact on lending to businesses and consumers, Daly believes QE2 is likely to be the policy response. “We believe that a strong case can be made for focusing QE2 on ‘credit easing’ (directly targeting the credit spreads that cause the problem), rather than on the purchase of government gilts,” said Daly. This option is unlikely to be taken up according to Daly as the MPC believes this is the job of the government and fiscal policy. “The question of how big QE2 is likely to be is intrinsically linked to which assets are bought. But if, as was the case in QE1, purchases are focused on government gilts, then a total of 100 billion pounds over two quarters is a reasonable central case,” Daly added. If credit easing is not an option for the MPC, Daly believes just buying gilts would be a mistake. “While we believe that QE2 would be significantly more effective if it were targeted on assets other than gilts, there are still likely to be significant positive benefits from a program of this type,” said Daly. © 2011 CNBC.com Source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/44396570/

Another Reason to Buy Gold: Franc Losing Safety Status

Skip navigationPublished: Tuesday, 6 Sep 2011 | 2:17 PM ET

By: Jeff Cox
CNBC.com Senior Writer

 

Just as talk had begun to intensify about a gold bubble building, the metal got another boost Tuesday when the Swiss National Bank announced measures to decrease the value of the franc.

Mark Hooper | Getty Images

The SNB's move was widely viewed as positive for gold because the metal will gain even more popularity as a safe-haven investment of choice.

For the past 14 months—and, in fact, since Lehman Brothers failed in September 2008—the franc has experienced a parabolic rise as financial instability beset many of its neighbors as well as the US.

But the Swiss central bank, faced with worries that the ever-strengthening currency would jeopardize the country's export-based economy, announced an aggressive cap for the franc's value against the euro.

Consequently, the currency tumbled more than 8 percent in Tuesday trade.

while down narrowly amid a global asset selloff, is expected to fare well in the days ahead.

"With Japan massively intervening in the (currency) market and the Swiss effectively curbing the safe-haven status of the Swiss franc today, we only really have gold as the last-standing safe-haven currency around," David Rosenberg, senior economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff in Toronto, wrote in his daily note. "While the US dollar has liquidity, it unfortunately has a debt burden alongside it that gold does not."

Jeff Cox
Senior Writer
CNBC.com

To be sure, the dollar was among the few winners immediately after the SNB announcement, gaining more than 1 percent against a basket of the world's currencies in risk-off trading. The so-called commodity currencies—from Canada, New Zealand and Australia—also fared mostly well.

But gold possesses the added advantage of independent movement, particularly important when most other market assets are moving in the same direction, a trend known as correlation.

"You're seeing gold becoming increasingly credible as that safe haven," said David Rodriquez, quantitative strategist at DailyFX in New York. "It's defied broader market deleveraging, which is pretty surprising. Given what we've seen with difficulties in fiat currencies, I don't see it going away anytime soon."

Rodriquez describes himself as normally "the opposite of a gold bug" because he anticipated that when economic conditions collapsed gold would go down as well.

"The S&P 500 and the Dow are off substantially from recent record highs and gold is setting a fresh record high," he said. "So it's not really a lot of speculative capital in gold. It's withstanding sudden bouts of deleveraging across financial markets."

RELATED LINKS

Current DateTime: 04:38:21 06 Sep 2011
LinksList Documentid: 44411776

• Franc Move Roils Markets
• Swiss Draw Line in Sand
• Why Any Euro Exit Would Cause 'Complete Chaos'

Hedge fund manager Dennis Gartman, who writes the widely followed Gartman Letter, speculated this morning that a major nation holding gold would begin selling, setting off a potential fire sale.

However, he said in a subsequent interview that the SNB announcement was "the odd event" and that gold is holding up because of its safe-haven appeal.

"You have just taken the franc and turned it from being a place where capital will go to and you've now effectively brought the Swiss (franc) into the euro zone," Gartman said. "They did it surreptitiously and without asking the electorate."

Gartman said he regretted ditching two-thirds of his position when gold broke the $1,900/ounce barrier but has replaced half those positions since. He recommends holding gold in non-US currency that yields more and has greater stability.

Despite misgivings about what central banks' actions could have on gold, the narrative following the SNB move was that the metal had survived and likely would scale higher.

"To the degree that solvency ranks high and counterparty risk ranks high among individual investors, those concerns are going to drive money into the metals market," said David McAlvany, CEO of McAlvany Financial Group, a precious metals brokerage based in Durango, Col. "Maybe the primary question is, how low can various global currencies go in an effort by the world's monetary authorities to bring back financial stability and growth?"

Indeed, the threat looms of a global competitive devaluation—where central banks continue to debase currencies in an attempt to gain a leg up in the world trade markets—thus making gold even more valuable as an inflation hedge. Worries over global recession and the debt crises in peripheral Europe have only enhanced gold's attraction.

"Fiscal measures and austerity measures are not popular, which means that really the only place you can go are monetary measures," McAlvany said. "So if concerted or competitive currency devaluation is part of the next two weeks, two months, two years, then again you're asking the question: How much is that devaluation reflected in the price of gold today?"

© 2011 CNBC.com

Krisis di Asia Barat & Kemerosotan Pasaran Saham Antara Faktor Kenaikan Harga Emas

Ketegangan Afrika Utara, Asia Barat pengaruhi harga emas.Harga emas meningkat melebihi AS$1,400 (RM4,284) satu auns semalam, pertama kali dalam tempoh hampir tujuh minggu, berikutan ketegangan yang terus memuncak di Afrika Utara dan Asia Barat.

Ketegangan kini merebak dari Mesir dan Tunisia ke negara Asia Barat dan Afrika Utara lain apabila penunjuk perasaan berkumpul membantah pemerintahan pemimpin yang sudah memegang kuasa begitu lama.Harga emas sesi dagangan semalam naik sehingga AS$1,400.40 (RM5,041.44) satu auns daripada paras AS$1,388.58 (RM4,249.05) satu auns ketika didagangkan di New York Jumaat lalu.

Harga kontrak hadapan emas bagi April naik AS$11.70 (RM35.8) satu auns kepada AS$1,400.30 (RM4,284.91).

“Tidak dapat disangsikan lagi bahawa kenaikan logam berharga itu yang berlaku sejak kebelakangan ini berikutan ketegangan di Asia Barat,” kata Daniel Major, Penganalisis di RBS Global Banking & Markets.

“Jika (pembelian) tidak dibuat menerusi dana dagangan bursa atau di Comex, ia kemungkinan besar dibuat menerusi pasaran dagangan fizikal iaitu pembelian syiling atau jongkong emas kecil, dan saya tidak menolak kemungkinan adanya pembelian lebih besar oleh individu kaya jika dilihat daripada keadaan ketegangan yang belum berkesudahan,” katanya.

Menteri Luar Turki, Ahmet Davutoglu, semalam berkata revolusi di Tunisia akan menjadi model kepada lain-lain negara yang ingin melakukan pembaharuan politik.

Tentangan terus diberikan kepada pemimpin Libya, Muammar Gaddafi yang terus merebak di ibu negara, Tripoli kelmarin dan anak lelaki berikrar untuk terus bertahan ketika semakin ramai penunjuk perasaan terbunuh di timur negara itu.

Harga minyak pula terus naik hampir sebanyak AS$3 setong kepada paras tertinggi dalam tempoh dua setengah tahun ketika peniaga melihat berlakunya ketegangan yang tidak berkesudahan di negara pengeluar minyak utama, Libya.

Harga saham di Eropah turut jatuh berikutan krisis itu.Dalam dagangan semalam, harga perak naik setinggi AS$33.46 (RM102.38) satu auns, platinum pada AS$1,844.25 (RM5,643.4) satu auns manakala palladium pada AS$859 (RM2,628.54) satu auns. – REUTERS